Monthly Market Wrap: May 2026

Global shares rose and oil price dropped on US/Iran peace deal hopes

Monthly Market Wrap: May 2026

Key points

Global shares rose and oil price dropped on US/Iran peace deal hopes

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Market Wrap - May 2026 - Countries

UNITED STATES

  • President Trump’s latest round of 10% tariffs have been found unlawful by a US trade court.
  • US employment increased in April, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.
  • The S&P 500 Index (+5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+8%) notched records, boosted by AI and earnings optimism. The strong rally in chip shares passed a new milestone, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index posting its strongest performance through the first 100 trading days of any year on record, up more than 80% YTD. Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix all climbed into the ranks of $1 trillion companies.

UK/EUROPE

  • The European Commission officially downgraded the euro area’s 2026 growth outlook to 0.9% and elevated inflation expectations to 3.0% in its recent Spring 2026 Economic Forecast.
  • Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose to a level not seen in 15 years, as investors fret over inflation shock and public debt.
  • UK inflation fell sharply to 2.8% in the year to April, dropping well below the 3.3% recorded in March.

ASIA

  • The People’s Bank of China kept the benchmark lending interest rates unchanged in May for a 12th consecutive month. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was maintained at 3%, while the five-year LPR was kept unchanged at 3.5%.
  • CPI increased marginally from 1.0%y/y to 1.2%y/y, driven mainly by higher energy costs rather than a demand-led acceleration in inflation.
  • Japan’s economy grew at annualised 2.1% in Q1, beating expectations. This was driven by solid private consumption and a robust contribution from net exports. CPI dropped to 1.3% y/y.

SOUTH AFRICA

  • Moody’s lifted SA’s outlook from stable to positive, while leaving the sovereign rating unchanged at Ba2. It noted that weak growth, high debt levels, inequality and fragile economic fundamentals continue to weigh on the rating.
  • Inflation surged to 4% in April, following the petrol price increase — the highest rate since August 2024.
  • The SARB raised its benchmark repo rate by 25-basis points to 7%, citing inflationary pressures stemming from the ongoing Iran war and higher oil prices.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 32.7% from 32.4% in 4Q25.
  • The JSE All Share Index lost 0.3% in May, dragged down by the largest index share, Naspers (8% of the index), which was down 5%; and volatile gold shares.
Market Wrap - May 2026 - Returns
Market Wrap - May 2026 - Indices Market Wrap - May 2026 - Interest Rates Market Wrap - May 2026 - Exchange Rate Market Wrap - May 2026 - Oil