Elephant in the room 2023
webinar
Walking the tightrope of choice
In June, we invited everyone to join us once again for our annual economic and political seminar, Elephant in the Room.
Host Michael Summerton welcomed STANLIB’s chief economist, Kevin Lings, and political analyst, Frans Cronje, to delve into the pressing issues confronting South Africa. The panel explored potential pivotal decisions and events, some of which were more conspicuous than others, that could have far-reaching consequences for our nation and its people.
As a country, we found ourselves in a transitional phase that had been in the making for decades and might have required several more years to resolve. Each day presented a fresh set of hurdles that the government, businesses, and civil society had to confront. Did our future hold promise, or would it be a continuation of the status quo?
About the webinar
South Africa was currently in a very difficult transition phase that had been decades in the making and might take several more to resolve. Everywhere we looked, we saw, lived, and felt the palpable impact of poor historical policy decisions. Each day brought a new set of opportunities and challenges that the government, businesses, and civil society had to face. Given this, what might some probable futures hold for us? These futures could be influenced by key decisions and events, some more visible than others, and they could have far-reaching consequences.
We explored a few of these significant stepping stones in the context of:
- Global geopolitical and economic influences impacting the South African economy and the political game being played on the international stage, which could affect our economic and political future as a country.
- Key indicators we needed to be aware of as we navigated these decisions.
- South Africa in the context of Russia, America, China, and BRICS.
- Our role (or lack thereof) and our relative political position and its impact on our economy.
2. Local economic indicators, as well as political and fiscal influences and decisions, considering:
- Monetary policy – what we didn’t see was sometimes more important than what we did.
- Politics of the upcoming election year – understanding the reality of political opinion on the ground and the turbulent feedback loops at play amongst voters.
- Infrastructure.
- Budget.
3. The mindset of the South African investor.
- Where and how we could make rational decisions in this context.
- The relative attractiveness of offshore vs local assets.
- The impact of policy on locally based companies.
- Critical pillars needed for a positive future for South Africa.
- How we could objectively evaluate whether a country was a ‘failed state’.
4. In conclusion, we reflected on the steps we needed to be aware of as signposts for a potential future South Africa and whether or not the world believed this future was possible.
The speakers
Frans Cronje
Director
Frans Cronje Private Clients
Frans Cronje directs Frans Cronje Private Clients, a firm specializing in independent political and economic advice and strategy. He has over 20 years of experience working with clients ranging from leading Fortune 500 companies to major banks and financial institutions and some of the world’s most influential governments.
He was educated at St John’s College in Houghton and the University of the Witwatersrand and holds a PhD in scenario planning. He is the author of three books on the future of the world and South Africa and chairs South Africa’s Social Research Foundation.
Michael Summerton
Head of Proposition
INN8
Michael started his career as an Audit Senior Manager at Ernst & Young, before joining Allan Gray in various retail EXCO roles, including Head of Retail Finance, Head of Client Experience and Product Development Senior Manager.
In 2017, Michael moved to Liberty to head up Proposition for the Group Investment Platform & Marketing of INN8, the independent investment platform brand of the group and was core to the team that launched the platform. Choosing a life in financial services over one in auditing, he feels most rewarded when connecting grannies with solutions that make their hard-earned retirement a little more dignified.
Kevin Lings
Chief Economist
STANLIB
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